Golden Globes 2022 Predictions: Who Can Win vs. Who Should Win

Is it going to be another ‘La La Land’ moment?

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association recently announced the nominations for the 75th annual Golden Globe Awards, which will be held on January 7 at 8 p.m. ET. The HFPA has done a good job of creating buzz around contenders over the past few days, with many possible Best Picture nominees coming out of nowhere. Indeed, some films that were expected to be in the race at this point didn’t even get nominated by the Golden Globes (we’re looking at you Greta Gerwig).

The awards season is just beginning and while we haven’t had any major surprises yet, this should change after Sunday’s announcement of the Oscar nominations. Many big contenders, such as Wonder Woman and Dunkirk, still haven’t been recognized outside their technical categories as the Hollywood trade publications continue to be late to release their so-called “breakouts.”

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Still, Golden Globe nominations can help determine how much ground a contender has made up against its Oscar rivals. While we’re still a month away from the Oscar nominations, we thought we’d project how things might turn out at the Golden Globes for this year’s big categories.

Best Motion Picture – Drama: 

Call Me By Your Name, The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will all battle it out for Best Picture. There’s buzz around Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, but it seems like they’re both a few weeks behind the other three in terms of momentum. Meanwhile, Phantom Thread is a good bet for a nomination in the category, even though we’re unsure how well it will do with voters at large. The Revenant could sneak into this race, but the timing of its limited release may hurt it.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:

We still think Three Billboards will be hard to beat in this category, however, It is gaining some steam and could turn into a sleeper here. The Disaster Artist has slowly picked up steam but hasn’t really taken off among critics. The Shape of Water is still the biggest contender in this category, but it may be slightly overrated.

Best Motion Picture – Animated: 

This year’s Animated Feature Film race is wide open with Boss Baby and Ferdinand leading the way. We’re hoping that Pixar’s Coco secures a nom here, but it will probably be left out of the race in favor of The Lego Batman Movie.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:

Timothée Chalamet has quickly become one of the most talked-about young actors thanks to his standout performance in Call Me By Your Name, but Daniel Day-Lewis is a tough customer who doesn’t give out awards easily. Meanwhile, Denzel Washington looks poised to earn his third-ever Golden Globe nomination thanks to his excellent performance in Roman J. Israel, Esq. Darkest Hour will probably secure a nom here with Gary Oldman expectedly terrific as Winston Churchill.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama: 

This category is full of strong performances, but Jessica Chastain’s work in Molly’s Game stands out among the rest. Sally Hawkins has been excellent in The Shape of Water and while we think she’ll get nominated for an Oscar late next month, it may not happen with the Golden Globes. Meryl Streep is a given for The Post, but she could face off against Frances McDormand in the Foreign Press’ race.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: 

James Franco’s performance as Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist will likely secure him a nomination here and we think he may be joined by Hugh Jackman for The Greatest Showman. Steve Carrell is the only actor in Battle of the Sexes to have been receiving major awards buzz and it will likely secure him a nomination here, but there’s always a chance that Ansel Elgort could sneak into this race if Baby Driver has enough support.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: 

Saoirse Ronan has been the frontrunner in this category for Lady Bird, but there are others who could end up stealing her spot. Margot Robbie is getting closer to securing a nomination for I, Tonya while Sally Hawkins’ name continues to be mentioned for The Shape of Water. Meanwhile, Emma Stone should have no problems earning her second Globe nomination for Battle of the Sexes.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture: 

Willem Dafoe’s performance as Green Goblin in Spider-Man: Homecoming was surprisingly great, but his chances of earning a Globe nomination are still low. Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards looks poised to secure his second-ever Golden Globe nomination with Sam Rockwell also vying for one with his work in the film. Armie Hammer was great in Call Me By Your Name, but it seems like there’s not enough support for him to get a nom.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture:

Mary J. Blige is absolutely terrific in Mudbound, but her chances of being recognized for her work are slim to none at this point in time. Hong Chau should have no problems securing a nom for Downsizing despite the fact that the film is performing below expectations. Allison Janney is likely to pick up a Globe nomination for I, Tonya with Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird also gaining some steam.

Best Director – Motion Picture: 

Christopher Nolan’s chances of earning a nomination ended when Dunkirk was eliminated from the race, but Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, and Luca Guadagnino still have a chance of earning one for their respective films.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture: 

Martin McDonagh’s screenplay for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri unsurprisingly looks poised to get the win here with Jordan Peele’s brilliant screenplay for Get Out still a strong contender as well. Greta Gerwig, Guillermo del Toro and Luca Guadagnino are also expected to receive nods here for their work on Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Call Me By Your Name respectively.

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language:

A Fantastic Woman is expected to win in this category and while The Insult and Loveless are both more than deserving of a nomination, it’s unlikely that they will get one. It also doesn’t help the fact that Angelina Jolie did not secure a financial commitment from a studio to release her film In the Land of Blood and Honey.

Best Animated Feature Film: 

While The Boss Baby was nominated for Best Comedy at the Golden Globes, it is expected to lose out here for Coco. Other nominees will likely include Ferdinand, Loving Vincent, and The Breadwinner with The LEGO Batman Movie looking like a long shot at this point in time.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture: 

Jonny Greenwood has been receiving major awards buzz for his incredible score for Phantom Thread which means that he could end up winning here. Alexandre Desplat also looks like a strong contender after scoring The Shape of Water while John Williams is likely to receive a nomination for Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The best bet for an upset here is the return of Carter Burwell to the Globe mix following his work on Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Best Original Song – Motion Picture: 

“Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast is a lock in this category with “Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name looking like it will also secure a nom. “Stand Up For Something” is also expected to land a nomination for Marshall, while “This Is Me” is the favorite here for The Greatest Showman.

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy: 

Atlanta and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel look like the top nominees here with Black-ish and Silicon Valley likely to round out the list of nominees. Stranger Things and GLOW seem unlikely to receive a nom at this time while SMILF is not expected to crack into the lineup either.

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