The semiconductor crisis is somewhere in between, and despite the rosy forecasts from firms like Nvidia, it will still take another two years to see the light at the end of the tunnel. At least that’s what Pat Gelsinger, CEO of Intel, thinks. Gelsinger’s predictions don’t differ much from those of photolithography machinery manufacturer ASML, which also expects 2024 to be the tipping point.
According to the statements of the head of Intel, collected by ZDNet, at the moment the semiconductor industry is “at the beginning of a long-term growth cycle”, implying that the worst is over and that from this point It only remains to wait for slow but continued growth until new factories such as those announced in the United States and Germany come into operation.
Intel expects low-end PC makers will have to make inventory adjustments, but “overall” demand remains “robust in areas such as enterprise, cloud, AI, graphics and networking.” We therefore continue to face the same situation as two years ago, with a market hungry for product and a limited supply of options and volume given the lack of components and production lines.
The only way out of this solution is to continue building new factories, says Gelsinger. And also, in a distributed way so as not to have to depend on hyperlocalized providers.
Implicitly responding to those who believe that the construction of large facilities in the United States and Europe is pure appeasement policy, Gelsinger has declared that the closures in Shanghai due to COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine show that it is necessary to create production chains. “more resilient and more geographically balanced,” implying that the era in which most semiconductors were made in a small number of countries is coming to an end, at least for Intel.